Sentiment: Bulls vs. Bears
Sentiment: Bulls vs. Bears Sentiment Indicators Watching the VIX. The VIX gapped sharply lower on Friday bringing it below a level where the S&P500 peaked in late April, sold off in the run down to the June low that triggered this rally. This is a very important mark, as S&P 500 breaks to a new rally high, it is now the 5th higher high on this move as it approached 1400-1415 mark that I said last week is the target for this non Fed stimuli move. The VIX is at the level in late April where the market topped, sold off and VIX rallied. This is a interesting mark to watch. The market can continue to rally from here. The VIX could continue lower, down to its March levels, in the 15 Zone (near a 5 yr low). If it does that, the market can rally right up probably to 1415 or maybe even the prior high, from there without anything from the US Fed, it could get very toppy IMO. VIX: 15.64; -1.93 VXN: 17.46; -1.62 VXO: 14.77; -2.08 Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.83; -0.1 Bulls vs. Bears The Bulls are at 39.4% vs. 40.4% last. As the market continues marking higher lows and higher highs (good technical action), the Bulls are slowly fading. As is often the case just as the market turn some investors turn Bearish in a volatile market. For your reference: 35% is the mark that suggests Bullishness, and to be really Bearish it needs to get up to the 60-65% mark. The Bears are at 27.7% vs 26.6% last. The Bears are rising as the Bulls fade some, and gaining strength from the volatility even as the S&P500 trends higher. There is a long way to go before Bearishness gets Bullish for the market (35% is the mark), it is rising even as the market rises, a good contrary indication. For your reference: Bearishness hit a 5 yr high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since Y 1995, extreme negative sentiment or sure..